2025 Preseason
The first NFL presason game is 6 weeks away - not that anybody actually wants to watch the Hall of Fame Game, but it’s happening. Lots of changes happenings this season, so I thought a quick pre-cap was in order to remind everyone of what’s coming in 2025.
Draft
Check your calendars, Presason Week 3 is August 21 - which is when I’ll look to schedule the draft. The full 2024 season recap will be ready by then and there will be a Doodle coming soon to get the date finalized.
Lottery
Given there is a whole bunch of scoring changes, I didn’t want to leave the Draft untouched, so we have an experiment for this year - A LOTTERY.
Here’s how it will work:
- For every Regular Season loss, you get one entry
- I draw names
- When your name is called, you get to pick your Draft position
That means you get up to 14 entries per season - 84 in total. Here’s how the chances break down
| Team | Losses | First Draw % |
|---|---|---|
| Julian | 11 | 13.10% |
| JB | 10 | 11.90% |
| Tuesday | 10 | 11.90% |
| Morgan | 10 | 11.90% |
| Blythe | 8 | 9.52% |
| Jon | 7 | 8.33% |
| Megan | 7 | 8.33% |
| Ryan | 7 | 8.33% |
| Shannon | 6 | 7.14% |
| Erik | 4 | 4.76% |
| Samantha | 3 | 3.57% |
| Chris | 1 | 1.19% |
I still have some logistics to sort out here - maybe Dino will pull things out of the hat for everyone.
Rule Change Summary
At the end of last season, you all voted on a number of rule changes and they all passed. As a reminder, here is what is coming in 2025
- 1 point per Reception
- 1 Extra FLEX roster spot
- .25 Point Per Carry
- 4 point passing TD
- Scaled Penalties for Missed FG
- Week 15 Playoff start, Week 16 Championship and only 4 teams make the playoffs
Impact on Points
To show you all what those scoring changes would look like, I pulled the numbers for the top offensive players. All the data is below, computed with the new scoring.
QB: The top QBs see a slight decrease in production, up to about 4 points per game. For rushing heavy QBs though (i.e. Jalen Hurts), this mean business is BOOMING.
| Position | Name | 2024 Points | Proj. 2024 Total | Delta | Project PPG | PPG | PPG Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Lamar Jackson | 495.38 | 446.13 | 49.25 | 26.24 | 29.14 | 2.90 |
| QB | Josh Allen | 419.04 | 385.84 | 33.2 | 22.70 | 24.65 | 1.95 |
| QB | Joe Burrow | 411.82 | 336.32 | 75.5 | 19.78 | 24.22 | 4.44 |
| QB | Baker Mayfield | 395.8 | 326.8 | 69 | 19.22 | 23.28 | 4.06 |
| QB | Jared Goff | 354.46 | 288.21 | 66.25 | 16.95 | 20.85 | 3.90 |
| QB | Jayden Daniels | 349.82 | 330.82 | 19 | 19.46 | 20.58 | 1.12 |
RB: The top RBs see almost an extra TD of weekly production (negative is good here).
| Position | Name | 2024 Points | Proj. 2024 Total | Delta | Project PPG | PPG | PPG Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB | Saquaon Barkley | 323.3 | 437.55 | -114.25 | 25.74 | 19.02 | -6.72 |
| RB | Derrick Henry | 319.4 | 419.65 | -100.25 | 24.69 | 18.79 | -5.90 |
| RB | Jahmyr Gibbs | 312.9 | 427.4 | -114.5 | 25.14 | 18.41 | -6.74 |
| RB | Bijan Robinson | 280.7 | 415.7 | -135 | 24.45 | 16.51 | -7.94 |
| RB | Josh Jacobs | 263.1 | 374.35 | -111.25 | 22.02 | 15.48 | -6.54 |
| RB | Kyren Williams | 245.3 | 357.1 | -111.8 | 21.01 | 14.43 | -6.58 |
WR/TE: Both WR and TE see an increase of an extra TD of weekly production AND the top TEs are suddenly competitive with the middle range of WR (negative is ALSO good here).
| Position | Name | 2024 Points | Proj. 2024 Total | Delta | Project PPG | PPG | PPG Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR | Jamarr Chase | 276 | 403.75 | -127.75 | 23.75 | 16.24 | -7.51 |
| WR | Justin Jefferson | 214.48 | 317.73 | -103.25 | 18.69 | 12.62 | -6.07 |
| WR | ARST | 206.68 | 318.68 | -112 | 18.75 | 12.16 | -6.59 |
| WR | Brian Thomas JR | 187 | 281.5 | -94.5 | 16.56 | 11.00 | -5.56 |
| WR | Terry McLaurin | 187.8 | 270.3 | -82.5 | 15.90 | 11.05 | -4.85 |
| TE | George Kittle | 158.6 | 236.6 | -78 | 13.92 | 9.33 | -4.59 |
| TE | Brock Bowers | 150.7 | 264.45 | -113.75 | 15.56 | 8.86 | -6.69 |
| TE | Trey McBride | 138.8 | 244.05 | -105.25 | 14.36 | 8.16 | -6.19 |
YAY POINTS
Kickers
Last season we saw a TON of high scoring kickers (Shannon was so happy - as was Jon, since that’s what put him in the Finals). However, if Kickers are athletes too, we need to make sure they aren’t getting a free ride when they shank a 45 yarder.
Currently, points go up as yardage increases, but a miss is only a loss of 2 points. No thank you.
So here’s how the adjusted scoring will work (these are the only categories I have)
MADE
- 0-39 yards: 1 (PAT is 33 yards, so this should generally be the same)
- 40-49: 3
- 50-59: 4
- 60+: 5
MISSED
- 0-39 yards: -3 (SAME AS MISSED PAT)
- 40-49: -2
- 50-59: -1
- 60+: 0
Here’s how that would change scoring for the Top 5 Kickers from 2024 (this is an estimate b/c ESPN doesn’t have a ton of detailed stats here…)
| Player | Points | Points Per Game | Adj 2024 Points | Adj PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Boswell | 185 | 10.88 | 91 | 5.35 |
| Brandon Aubrey | 178 | 10.47 | 101 | 5.94 |
| Cameron Dicker | 164 | 9.65 | 84 | 4.94 |
| Chase McLaughlin | 154 | 9.06 | 60 | 3.53 |
| Ka’imi Fairbarin | 154 | 9.06 | 72 | 4.24 |
Sorry Kickers - almost half your value is gone…but Shannon still ships Kickers.